Three Futures: How We Respond to AI
AI will be able to do most knowledge work within years. The question isn't if mass displacement happens, but how we respond. These three scenarios show radically different outcomes based on policy choices.
The Premise
- •25% of ALL workers PERMANENTLY replaced over the first 5 years
- •Gradual displacement: Year 1: 2% → Year 2: 4% → Year 3: 5% → Year 4: 6% → Year 5: 8% = 25% total
- •These jobs don't come back. AI does them better, cheaper, forever.
- •Government responds with normal tools: unemployment benefits, stimulus checks, job retraining programs
- •No structural changes to the economy or ownership
The Death Spiral
The Critical Insight
Note: Exact figures will come from our 1M household simulation. Current estimates are placeholders.
Timeline
AI Displacement Begins
First 6% of workers permanently replaced. Economy absorbs initial shock.
Displacement Accelerates
25% total workers permanently replaced. Unemployment spikes, consumer spending drops sharply.
Demand Spiral Kicks In
Less spending → lower demand → MORE layoffs beyond initial AI displacement. Self-reinforcing collapse begins.
Permanent Depression
Total job loss reaches 40-50%. No recovery mechanism exists. Jobs are gone FOREVER.
Outcome by Year 10
Unemployment
40-50%*
GDP Change
-50%
Government Debt
Unserviceable
Social Stability
Collapse
*Placeholder — exact figures will come from 1M household simulation
Interactive simulation chart coming soon
Run your own simulation to see these dynamics in action
This is why we built CrashLab
To show these dynamics mathematically. Our open-source simulator lets you test assumptions, adjust parameters, and see for yourself how different policies lead to different outcomes.